When not to follow the model
Across the 163 games where it disagreed with the line, the model was right 38.7% of the time and the market 61.3%. That gap is not chance, which is why a disagreement is shown as a warning and not as an opportunity.
NFL 2026 · Premier League, LaLiga and Serie A 2026-27
Everyone sells you winners.
We tell you when there aren't any.
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QuantCancha projects every NFL game with statistical models, then compares that projection against the line the sportsbooks publish. When the comparison leaves no edge, it flags it in red instead of selling you the disagreement as an opportunity. In soccer there is a goals model, and it loses to the market on 1X2: it's measured, and we say so here. That's why we don't tell you who wins there — we give you what the sportsbook doesn't publish: every exact scoreline, every goals line, and whether both teams score. This is a measurement tool, not a tipping service.
No card required — just an email. The NFL's 18 weeks plus the 38 matchdays of each soccer league with their results, and a sample of the Terminal.
What's inside
NFL · 272 games, 18 weeks
Premier League, LaLiga and Serie A · 38 matchdays each
countdown and results
What we measured
Four numbers that came out of the data, not out of a nice idea
Every claim on the platform was checked against its league's public record, and these four change how you should read everything else. Two of them say the same thing from two different sports, and it is not what we would like them to say: our models do not beat the price.
The median cut the sportsbook takes
Measured on real closing lines. The platform computes it game by game and tells you when today's is above normal.
What our soccer model weighs against the price
A full goals model, trained on 21 seasons and tested on 12,610 Premier League, LaLiga and Serie A matches, earns a weight of zero when blended with the odds. Everything it knew was already in the price, and we would rather say so than sell it.
When a game turns into a high-scoring one
With the total set at 49 or higher, 51.6% of games go past 50 points, against 30.1% for the rest. Measured across 603 games.
Plans
The free tier is actually free
The full NFL schedule and all three soccer leagues, with lines, probabilities and everything explained in plain language. Plus a complete sample of the Terminal, so you can judge the quality before paying anything. This used to say that the day there was a goals model it would ship with its backtest beside it: there has been one since September, and the backtest is right up there, saying it loses to the market.
| What's included | Free $0 forever · starts with 15 days of Pro | Pro MX$299 per month, billed in Mexican pesos |
|---|---|---|
| NFL schedule | ||
| All 272 games with line, spread and odds Explained in words: who's favored, and by how much | Yes | Yes |
| Countdown to kickoff, and the result when it ends | Yes | Yes |
| Expensive-vig warning When the sportsbook is taking more than usual on that game | Yes | Yes |
| Soccer · Premier League, LaLiga and Serie A | ||
| All 38 matchdays of each league, with their results By matchday, with kick-off times in your own time zone | Yes | Yes |
| Who's favored, and by how much, said in words With the crest of all 60 clubs and the goals expected | Yes | Yes |
| How far the price has moved since it opened The sportsbook is named: one book's price is not the market | Yes | Yes |
| The goals model: every scoreline, every line, both teams to score What the sportsbook doesn't price. The 1X2 sits next to the market with both log-losses underneath: 0.9769 the model, 0.9617 the price | — | Yes |
| Closing odds from 21 seasons, 2005-06 to today Compiled by football-data.co.uk, seventeen books per match | — | Yes |
| What the price takes before the ball rolls 4.55% for a single sportsbook against 0.44% for the best of seventeen in the Premier League: no model wins those points — comparing prices does | — | Yes |
| NFL Terminal | ||
| Passing-yard projection per quarterback, with its error band From 10,000 simulations of each player | 3 sample | All 32 |
| Who draws a weak defense this week, and who draws a tough one | 3 sample | Yes |
| Volume versus efficiency: EPA per dropback and CPOE | — | Yes |
| CSV download for your own spreadsheet | — | Yes |
| Projection engine | ||
| Strength of all 32 teams, with its uncertainty Kalman filter over the complete historical record | — | Yes |
| Calibration curve against the closing line If the model says 70%, does it happen 7 times out of 10? | — | Yes |
| The head-to-head against the market, game by game | — | Yes |
| Pro tools | ||
| Parlay optimizer Using the real correlation between players in the same game | — | Yes |
| Expected-value scanner and risk lab | — | Yes |
| Backtesting across 27 seasons Ten rules, each with its confidence interval next to it | — | Yes |
| Start free | Get Pro | |
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Another way to pay
The whole season, one payment
The Season Pass is MX$899 and unlocks Pro through February 15, 2027: regular season, playoffs and the Super Bowl. It costs the same as three monthly payments and covers five months. One-time payment, billed in Mexican pesos: it does not auto-renew.
What this is, and what it isn't
QuantCancha is a statistical analysis tool. It is not financial advice and not a betting recommendation, and nothing inside it should be read as a prediction that you will make money.
The data comes from the NFL's public record (nflverse), the open openfootball schedule, a public third-party service for results, and closing odds compiled by football-data.co.uk. Nothing is generated or eyeballed. The pre-match line on a soccer match comes from a single sportsbook, and the platform names it: it is not a market consensus. When a figure rests on thin history, the platform says so above the figure, not in fine print.
18+ only. If you bet, bet money you can afford to lose. If it stops feeling like your own decision, seek professional help.
Start with 15 days of Pro. Free, and all it asks for is an email.
Fifteen days is two full matchdays of every competition: enough to see whether it adds anything, and to see it twice. Nothing is charged when it ends — the account stays on the free plan. And if it does add something, you know where the button is.